How it works
What is a prediction market?
On PROBEXA you make predictions about future events. Each market is a question with a Yes or No answer (or several options), an end date and an official source that decides the result. You show your view by buying shares of the answer you think is right.
Share prices move with users’ trades and reflect the crowd’s estimate of how likely the event is.
Price and chance
Each share costs between 0 and 1 USDT and is shown in cents. The Yes price is the event’s chance, and the No price is 1 minus the Yes price.
- If Yes costs 46¢, the market gives a 46% chance.
- Each winning share pays 1 USDT at the end; losing shares go to zero.
- If you buy Yes at 46¢ and the event happens, you earn 54¢ per share. If it does not, you lose the cost of those shares.
How do I get started?
- Connect your wallet and sign the sign-in message. No phone number or email is needed.
- Deposit USDT. PROBEXA has nothing to do with Toman and works only with USDT.
- Pick a market, choose Yes or No and an amount, and review the amount and price.
- Hold until the market ends, or sell any time (if you hold shares).
- After settlement, winners are paid automatically and you can see it in your portfolio.
How is the result decided?
Every market has rules and an official resolution source from the start, shown on the market page. After the market ends, the result is posted with documentation and there is a dispute window. Then it settles. If the result stays ambiguous, the market is voided and your cost is returned.
Frequently asked questions
Can I sell before the market ends?
Yes, if you hold shares in that option. Selling happens at the current market price, and you cannot sell shares you do not hold.
What are the minimum and maximum amounts?
The amount limits for each order are shown in the interface. Current limits may change.
Are there fees?
Fees, if any, are shown before you confirm an order.
What if I lose my wallet?
Sign-in and account access use your wallet. We cannot recover your wallet; keep your keys and recovery phrase safe.
What is USDT?
USDT is a digital currency designed to be worth about one US dollar. Its risks are explained on the Risk disclosure page.
Why are accounts shown as short addresses?
To protect privacy, activity and leaderboards show only a shortened address, never the full address.
Is profit guaranteed?
No. Trading involves risk and shares can go to zero. Read the Risk disclosure.
What if a result is disputed?
During the dispute window you can dispute with documentation. The operator reviews it and announces the result or voids the market.